By Robin Bourgeois
GFAR Secretariat
The UN population forecasts projects that by 2050 the world will have 9 billion people to feed. This projection is currently setting the world agenda for food security, agriculture, and nutrition as well as for agricultural research and development. And what if it was wrong? A recent article published in the New-York Times challenges this projection as being far too pessimistic. According to a forecast by the Deutsche Bank, world population could peak at 8,7 million in 2055 and decline to 8 billion in 2100, against more than 10 billion.
Who is right? Whom shall we believe? The answer is nobody. There is ample evidence that demography cannot be predicted as shown in that article. But alternative demographic futures can be explored and their implications can be analysed through foresight and scenario building. Building the future we want, means not only anticipate trends and ruptures but also actively engage in the transformation we wish to see happening. Demography is a strong driver but it is driven by human behavior. Yet, it has been discarded as a domain of action. What would business-as-non-usual means for demography? Is responsible demographic growth an option?
Reference : http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/21/business/uns-forecast-of-population-growth-may-be-too-high.html?_r=1&
